Penn State at Michigan

Week 7 · Oct 17Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI
Penn State2–0+16.3 vs. avg · #18
@
Michigan2–0+15.1 vs. avg · #19

Matchup View

Opening LineMichigan -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusMichigan -6.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMichigan -1.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward MichiganOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMichigan -2.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMichigan -1.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward MichiganOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Michigan -2.5Opening Market ConsensusMichigan -6.5Unexplained at open~4 pts toward MichiganSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Michigan -2.5Current Market ConsensusMichigan -6.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gaps Michigan has extra rest~1 pt toward Michigan

Michigan has extra rest

~1 pt toward Michigan

Based on the current schedule, Michigan will have 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Michigan; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Michigan was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Michigan enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Michigan faces materially stronger Indiana in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Penn State lost the most recent meeting with Michigan.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Penn State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Penn State 45.9%Michigan 54.1%

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Compare Teams

Penn StateVSMichigan

Model View

Overall Rating+16.3 · #18+15.1 · #19
Offense Rating+7.9+8.2
Defense Rating+8.5+6.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.230.20
Offense Success Rate46.2%45.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.9%41.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total9.17.9
Playoff Odds33.3%9.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank68th20th