Matchup View
Michigan -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Michigan -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTMichigan has 7.2 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Michigan; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyThese conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Michigan enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan faces materially stronger Indiana in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State lost the most recent meeting with Michigan.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyObserved 6h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Michigan -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Michigan -5.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusMichigan has 7.2 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Michigan; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
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Open until scheduled kickoffStraight-up winner
Market consensus · Michigan -6.5
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