Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUSC at Penn State
Week 6 · Oct 10Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA
Matchup View
Opening Line
Penn State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusPenn State -1.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Penn State -1.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Penn StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
USC has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
USC begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
USC ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
USC lost the most recent meeting with Penn State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LinePenn State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusPenn State -1.5Based on 1 book
Penn State -1.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
USC 49.4%Penn State 50.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Penn State -1.5
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