UC Davis at SMU

Week 2 · Sep 12Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park, TX

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineSMU -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusSMU -25.51-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward UC DavisExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?UC Davis 10 · SMU 56
Pregame OV Line
SMU -30
Final recorded market
SMU -25.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
SMU by 46

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UC Davis 1.8%SMU 98.2%

Compare Teams

UC DavisVSSMU

Model View

Overall Rating+12.2 · #26
Offense Rating+5.8
Defense Rating+6.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.25
Offense Success Rate43.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.03
Defense Success Rate Allowed39.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.8
Playoff Odds26.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank63rd