Check the evidence status
Supported, supported with wider uncertainty, developing, research candidate, not supported, and retired have the same meaning everywhere on the site.
Ledger primer
How to inspect the evidence
The Ledger is the audit trail behind every Factor—including ideas that sounded persuasive but did not survive testing.
Read the question and decision
The research question explains what was tested. The product decision tells you whether and how the result is allowed to appear on matchup pages.
Inspect sample and validation
Sample size alone is not enough. Look for held-out testing, consistency across seasons, estimate ranges, and safeguards against using information that was unavailable before kickoff.
Read the limitations
A Factor usually explains part of the market gap, not the final score. Correlated conditions, missing information, and wide outcome ranges remain visible rather than being edited away.