research utility

Gap Explorer

Choose the difference you want to study. We will show every qualifying game—not just the convenient examples.

Market-Gap Side Cover Record

This is a retrospective description, not a recommendation.

The current market line for a future game may still move. Historical comparisons use the final CFBD spread value we recorded; CFBD does not provide the timestamp needed to prove it was the true closing line.

49.7%in 383 games

188–190–5 ATS · pushes excluded from rateHistorically, the market was broadly calibrated.

What the record means

OnVarsity does not take a side

The market-gap side is the team favored by the unexplained market adjustment relative to the OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line. We use it as the primary reference because the market is our benchmark—not because OnVarsity is recommending that side. Every qualifying game remains visible so you can decide what the history means.

Underlying evidence

Every qualifying game

383 comparable games

Game	Line accounting					Outcome
Game	OV Line	Factor Adj.	Suggested Line	Market Line	Gap	Final Score	Covered?

25 of 383 games shown

Suggested lines are reconstructed using only Factor families presently attached to the Results Log under their current published definitions.

Evidence contract

The OV Line excludes the focal game’s market line.
Historical Factors are reconstructed with inputs available before kickoff; scores and the final recorded market are outcomes only.
The current Results Log covers 2022–25 and the Factor families already reconstructed at game level. Missing Factors remain unexplained rather than silently estimated.
Gap and direction filters are applied mechanically to the complete retained record. Changing a filter never changes the underlying data.