Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky

Week 4 · Sep 26Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Bowling Green, KY
MercyhurstFCS
@
Western Kentucky3–5-15.1 vs. avg · #119

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineWestern Kentucky -23Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -407-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -23Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward MercyhurstOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWestern Kentucky -21.5Unexplained Gap~18.5 pts toward Western KentuckyExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWestern Kentucky -23Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward MercyhurstOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Western Kentucky -21.5Opening Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -39Unexplained at open~17.5 pts toward Western KentuckySince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Western Kentucky -21.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusWestern Kentucky -40Unexplained gap~18.5 pts toward Western KentuckyExplore similar gaps Mercyhurst has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Mercyhurst

Mercyhurst has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Mercyhurst

Mercyhurst has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Mercyhurst; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Mercyhurst 7 · Western Kentucky 52
Pregame OV Line
Western Kentucky -23
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Western Kentucky -40
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Western Kentucky -21.5
Actual margin
Western Kentucky by 45

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Mercyhurst 8.2%Western Kentucky 91.8%

Compare Teams

MercyhurstVSWestern Kentucky

Model View

Overall Rating—-15.1 · #119
Offense Rating—-7.5
Defense Rating—-7.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.17
Offense Success Rate—43.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed—36.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—94th