Alabama State at Troy

Week 2 · Sep 12Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineTroy -20Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusTroy -23.510-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 3:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward TroyExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?Alabama State 17 · Troy 34
Pregame OV Line
Troy -20
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Troy -23.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Troy by 17

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Alabama State 13.7%Troy 86.3%

Compare Teams

Alabama StateVSTroy

Model View

Overall Rating—-11.6 · #106
Offense Rating—-7.6
Defense Rating—-4.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.08
Offense Success Rate—37.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—39.6%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.0
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—100th