New Mexico at New Mexico State

Week 4 · Sep 26Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNew Mexico -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNew Mexico -11.59-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -14.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNew Mexico -13.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico -14.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)New Mexico -13.5Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico -11.5Unexplained at open~2 pts toward New Mexico StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)New Mexico -13.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNew Mexico -11.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward New Mexico StateExplore similar gaps New Mexico State has extra rest~1 pt toward New Mexico State

New Mexico State has extra rest

~1 pt toward New Mexico State

New Mexico State has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward New Mexico State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Mexico 42 · New Mexico State 18
Pregame OV Line
New Mexico -14.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
New Mexico -11.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
New Mexico -13.5
Actual margin
New Mexico by 24

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico 87.3%New Mexico State 12.7%

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Compare Teams

New MexicoVSNew Mexico State

Model View

Overall Rating+3.8 · #55-18.0 · #126
Offense Rating+1.5-12.0
Defense Rating+2.3-6.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.03
Offense Success Rate40.8%36.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.10
Defense Success Rate Allowed39.5%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total8.24.4
Playoff Odds6.1%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank108th117th