New Mexico State at Florida State

Week 0 · Aug 29Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL
New Mexico State1–2-17.1 vs. avg · #122
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Florida State1–1+6.9 vs. avg · #43

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineFlorida State -26.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusFlorida State -312-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineFlorida State -26.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineFlorida State -25Unexplained Gap~6 pts toward Florida StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineFlorida State -26.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Florida State -24.5Opening Market ConsensusFlorida State -29Unexplained at open~4.5 pts toward Florida StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~0.5 pts toward Florida StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Florida State -25Current Market ConsensusFlorida State -31Unexplained gap~6 pts toward Florida StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward New Mexico StateAt open ~2 pts toward New Mexico StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Florida State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward New Mexico StateAt open ~2 pts toward New Mexico StateIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Florida State
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Comparable games give Florida State about a 44% chance to win by 28 or more. Markets historically shaded about 1.7 points toward New Mexico State (average-estimate range 1.0–2.8).

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Mexico State 17 · Florida State 34
Pregame OV Line
Florida State -26.5
Final recorded market
Florida State -31
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Florida State -25
Actual margin
Florida State by 17

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico State 2.6%Florida State 97.4%

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Compare Teams

New Mexico StateVSFlorida State

Model View

Overall Rating-17.1 · #122+6.9 · #43
Offense Rating-11.5+5.4
Defense Rating-5.6+1.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.030.30
Offense Success Rate36.4%47.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%40.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.45.9
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.6%
Strength of Schedule Rank123rd29th