Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Memphis enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyEast Carolina at Memphis
Week 8 · Oct 22Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Memphis -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMemphis -10.511-book consensus · observed Oct 22, 8:25 AM EDT
Memphis -10.511-book consensus · observed Oct 22, 8:25 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward East CarolinaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Memphis enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Memphis was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Memphis is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Memphis ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Memphis lost the most recent meeting with East Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
East Carolina enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
East Carolina was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
East Carolina ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
East Carolina is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
East Carolina is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?East Carolina 34 · Memphis 41
- Pregame OV Line
- Memphis -13
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Memphis -10.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Memphis by 7
Observed 11h 4m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMemphis -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMemphis -10Earliest observed 4-book consensus
Memphis -10Earliest observed 4-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
East Carolina 15.8%Memphis 84.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Memphis -10.5
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