Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Michigan State is favored by 17.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyEastern Michigan at Michigan State
Week 2 · Sep 12Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Michigan State -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan State -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusMichigan State -17.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Michigan State -17.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Michigan StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Michigan State faces materially stronger Notre Dame in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Michigan State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Notre Dame.
Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 423 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 585 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan is a 17.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Eastern Michigan 7 · Michigan State 35
- Pregame OV Line
- Michigan State -17
- Final recorded market
- Michigan State -17.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Michigan State by 28
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMichigan State -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan State -17Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMichigan State -16.5Based on 2 books
Michigan State -16.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Eastern Michigan 9.3%Michigan State 90.7%
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Market consensus · Michigan State -17.5
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