Norfolk State at Virginia — Week 2

Week 2 · Sep 11Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA

Norfolk StateFCS

Virginia2–0+8.2 vs. avg · #37

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.

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Opening Line

Virginia -50Before any Factor adjustments

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Current Market Consensus

Virginia -44.51-book consensus · updated Sep 9

Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineVirginia -50Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward VirginiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineVirginia -51Unexplained Gap~6.5 pts toward Norfolk StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineVirginia -50Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward VirginiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Virginia -51Opening Market ConsensusVirginia -45Unexplained at open~6 pts toward Norfolk StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Virginia -51Current Market ConsensusVirginia -44.5Unexplained gap~6.5 pts toward Norfolk StateExplore similar gaps Virginia has extra rest~1 pt toward Virginia

Virginia has extra rest

~1 pt toward Virginia

Virginia has 7.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Virginia; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

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Completed gameWhat happened?Norfolk State 3 · Virginia 59

Pregame OV Line: Virginia -50
Final recorded market: Virginia -44.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line: Virginia -51
Actual margin: Virginia by 56

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability

Norfolk State <0.01%Virginia >99.9%

Virginia has extra rest

Virginia has extra rest

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