Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
TCU was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWest Virginia at TCU
Week 8 · Oct 24Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
TCU -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
TCU -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTCU -1111-book consensus · observed Oct 23, 12:43 PM EDT
TCU -1111-book consensus · observed Oct 23, 12:43 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward TCUExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
West Virginia enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
West Virginia lost the most recent meeting with TCU.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
West Virginia is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
West Virginia faces materially stronger Texas Tech in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?West Virginia 24 · TCU 20
- Pregame OV Line
- TCU -9.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- TCU -11
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- West Virginia by 4
Observed 23h 16m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTCU -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
TCU -9.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTCU -6.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
TCU -6.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
West Virginia 23.5%TCU 76.5%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · TCU -11
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