The Citadel at Texas A&M

Week 7 · Oct 17Kyle Field · College Station, TX
The CitadelFCS
@
Texas A&M4–4+14.6 vs. avg · #22

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineTexas A&M -44.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTexas A&M -45.57-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineTexas A&M -44.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward The CitadelOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineTexas A&M -42.5Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Texas A&MExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineTexas A&M -44.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward The CitadelOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Texas A&M -42.5Opening Market ConsensusTexas A&M -45.5Unexplained at open~3 pts toward Texas A&MSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Texas A&M -42.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusTexas A&M -45.5Unexplained gap~3 pts toward Texas A&MExplore similar gaps The Citadel has extra rest~2 pts toward The Citadel

The Citadel has extra rest

~2 pts toward The Citadel

The Citadel has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward The Citadel; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?The Citadel 0 · Texas A&M 41
Pregame OV Line
Texas A&M -44.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Texas A&M -45.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Texas A&M -42.5
Actual margin
Texas A&M by 41

Observed 3h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
The Citadel <0.01%Texas A&M >99.9%

Compare Teams

The CitadelVSTexas A&M

Model View

Overall Rating—+14.6 · #22
Offense Rating—+8.1
Defense Rating—+6.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.23
Offense Success Rate—45.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.12
Defense Success Rate Allowed—33.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.3
Playoff Odds—0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—10th