Close-win regression Developing estimate
Florida enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyOle Miss at Florida
Week 4 · Sep 26Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Gainesville, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Florida -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusFlorida -410-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDT
Florida -410-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward FloridaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Florida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Florida lost the most recent meeting with Ole Miss.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Ole Miss was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Ole Miss enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Ole Miss has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Ole Miss begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Ole Miss ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Ole Miss is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Ole Miss 28 · Florida 52
- Pregame OV Line
- Florida -2
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Florida -4
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida by 24
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineFlorida -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida -2Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusFlorida -3.5Earliest observed 9-book consensus
Florida -3.5Earliest observed 9-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Ole Miss 43.3%Florida 56.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Florida -4
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 26.